Monday, December 8, 2008

What's Wrong With Exponential Growth?

Part I of a series by guest writer Kamau:

What's wrong in the world today? As I scour the news waves daily, I can't find nary a bit of good news. Sure we have days the DOW goes up, but what does that really mean? Did a new factory open? Did a new revolutionary product or manufacturing process come into being? Did a million new jobs appear on the books? Are Americans making and/or keeping more of their own money? So what does the DOW signify? I will tell you; It represents the amount of activity or trade among the people that actually have wealth in this country. Last time I checked that was a scant few percent of the population (less then 10). So why do we get all excited to know the DOW went up (or down)??

Remember the Reagan years, the “trickle-down “philosophy? That rabbit hole goes deeper than you know and yes you (YOU) are still in it's clutches. Didn't think you believed in the idea, did you? Well, now you know.

YOU DO!!

Ask yourself why? If the DOW was a true indicator of wealth and welfare in America, why is it that even as oil prices dropped like a rock, there was no patterned effect to the larger economy. We are still losing employers by the droves and banks are dropping like flies. The larger banks are yet afraid to lend even to one another. So, what's wrong??

I listened to a lecture by Doctor Albert Bartlett about the theory and science behind exponential growth and the failure of mankind to truly understand it. In fact he stated “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the failure to understand exponential growth”. The public school nightmare we call education today only takes a cursory swipe at teaching abstract subject matter, but a mere 20 years ago, we “youngster's “ had to know the basic mathematical tools. Exponents was one of them. We actually learned how to plot curves on graph paper (today graphing calculators have take that requirement away). My own high-schoolers have difficulty at linear math (i.e straight lines). Not to get off on too great a tangent here, but I want to point out that our current quagmire has a long history that took a while to devolve into the mess we see today. For example; can something...anything... grow forever??? Please narrow that question to the planet Earth. This rock isn't getting any bigger as the years click by [trust me]. Yet we have devised a global economic paradigm that requires perpetual growth. Think about what that means. Every year, every quarter, every cycle, we all believe that the economy worldwide must grow. And true, grow it must or it crashes.

But....we live on a finite planet. We are citizens of a finite country (empire building aside). Yet, still we must grow. Here is a question for you; when does it stop? Stop it also must because, again, this rock is the same size it was 1 million years ago. It will be the same size (unless it explodes) 1 million years from now. When do we stop growing.

The preceding question is posed for your conjecture. As for myself, its a given; we will stop growing and the only question is: What will happen? Going back to what is wrong in the world today. Answer: seemingly everything.

I can't find a single item in modern life that is correct and/or functioning properly. The economy is on the skids, the climate is whacked, the soil is eroding, the rainforest's are being cut down, species are disappearing, the oceans are becoming acidic, the fish are being depleted, CO2 is still increasing, hunger is becoming more prevalent, old diseases are coming back, the bees are dying, the oil is running out, the coal is running out, the natural gas is running out, copper is running out, iron is running out, uranium is running out, fresh water is running out; the list is very long and I have barely touched the surface. I hope we can all discern each item of depletion is a direct result of over-use. If the economy must continue to grow, so must the population. There is the core issue or shortcoming of the perpetual growth disaster. In part two let's take the population issue to task......Kamau

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